In a country with the world’s lowest birth rate, new government data reveal a stark divide: South Koreans who own homes, hold stable jobs and earn higher incomes are far more likely to marry and have children than their less-secure peers.
The findings, drawn from a first-of-its-kind national panel study tracking individuals from 2015 to 2023, quantify the economic roots of a demographic crisis that has deepened despite years of expensive pro-natalist policies. They also echo challenges faced in high-cost U.S. cities, where soaring housing prices and precarious work have delayed or deterred family formation.
South Korea’s total fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime—fell to a record low of 0.72 last year, far below the replacement level of 2.1 and among the lowest ever recorded globally.
The study, released Tuesday by Statistics Korea, followed people born between 1983 and 1995. It found a sharp generational slide. Among men at age 32—the peak marriage age—42.8% of those born in 1983 were married, compared with just 24.3% of those born in 1991. Women showed a similar decline.
“These figures confirm in quantitative terms that marriage and childbirth decisions are shaped by a combination of economic and social conditions, even within the same generation,” said Kim Ji-eun, director of social statistics planning at the agency.
Housing emerged as one of the strongest predictors. Among men born in 1988, 26.5% of homeowners had a child within three years, more than double the 12.5% rate among non-homeowners. Women showed a parallel gap. The disparity underscores the burden in a country where apartment prices in Seoul have risen nearly 50% in five years, and the average home costs roughly 20 times the median annual household income—a ratio that dwarfs even that of expensive U.S. markets.
Employment type also proved critical. Regular full-time workers were significantly more likely to marry and have children than those in irregular or contract positions. Workers at small and medium-sized enterprises or running small businesses—who often lack job security and benefits—recorded the lowest family formation rates.
Notably, taking parental leave correlated strongly with having multiple children. Although fewer than 10% of men took leave, nearly half of those who did went on to have two or more children. The pattern held after controlling for income and homeownership, suggesting that supportive workplace policies can influence fertility decisions.
The data also highlighted a pronounced geographic split. Residents of the Seoul capital area—home to half the population and the nation’s most competitive real estate—were consistently less likely to have children than those in other regions.
For policymakers, the report adds weight to calls for structural reforms beyond short-term cash incentives. “The message is clear: without addressing housing affordability, job security, and workplace culture, financial bonuses alone will not reverse the trend,” said Lee Chul-hee, a demography professor at Seoul National University.
The implications reach beyond South Korea. As nations from Italy to Japan grapple with aging populations and falling birth rates, the Korean case offers a cautionary snapshot of how economic pressures can accelerate demographic decline—and a test of whether policy can still turn the tide.
