South Korea’s benchmark stock index could surge past the 10,000 mark to hit 11,000, driven by a powerful earnings expansion and corporate governance upgrades, Nomura Securities said in a report released Monday.
The brokerage raised its target range for the Kospi to between 10,000 and 11,000, up from its previous forecast of 7,500 to 8,000. The upward revision reflects what Nomura describes as a secular growth cycle centered on improving corporate earnings and return on equity (ROE).
Nomura identified artificial intelligence infrastructure—spanning memory chips, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), power equipment, energy storage systems, and nuclear energy—as the primary engine that will generate sustainable ROE for the next five years.
Furthermore, the firm anticipates an expansion in valuation multiples, including price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, as South Korean firms increase shareholder returns and optimize their capital structures. The report favorably assessed the government’s ongoing corporate governance reforms and stricter enforcement of ROE disclosures.
Beyond technology, Nomura highlighted the defense and automotive sectors as top investment picks. The defense industry is poised to benefit from rising global military demand amid escalating geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, automakers are gaining investment appeal due to a rapid structural shift toward autonomous driving and physical AI platforms.
In tandem with the index upgrade, Nomura set aggressive price targets for South Korea’s corporate titans. The firm projects tech giant Samsung Electronics to reach 590,000 won (approximately $435) per share, and chipmaker SK Hynix to soar to 4 million won (approximately $2,950). It also set target prices for automaker Kia at 240,000 won (approximately $177) and battery maker Samsung SDI at 90,000 won (approximately $664).
Nomura is the first major brokerage to forecast an 11,000 peak for the Kospi. The bold prediction follows a bullish note from Morgan Stanley, which previously lifted its year-end Kospi forecast to 9,500, while leaving the door open for a breach of the 10,000 threshold under a best-case scenario.
Domestic brokerages are also adjusting their models upward. Hyundai Motor Securities recently raised its year-end Kospi target to 9,750, while KB Securities noted that the index could potentially stretch to 10,500 in an extended bull market.
